COUNTESS NATALIE - I tipped Countess Natalie last start and she ran a solid race over 1600m at long odds at the Sunshine Coast. Rochelle Smith has swapped Sally Sweeney for Jeff Lloyd and whilst that means an extra 2.5kg in weight the stronger rider over 1690m may make the difference. Countess Natalie’s two placings have been on rain-affected ground and with some weather around a soft track may play into her hands. Countess Natalie is at big odds again and with a good run in transit gets a chance to break through.
DANSEZ - Trained by Kelly Schweida, Dansez has now had two runs back from a spell and steps up to a more suitable 1350m. The trainer has put Jeff Lloyd on board and from gate one Dansez should get a good run handy to the speed. Last preparation the Myboycharlie filly won three times at the Gold Coast up to 1400m from seven starts and whilst she failed at Ipswich had excuses due to the hot conditions that day. Dansez should now be reaching peak fitness and with the state’s leading rider aboard should prove hard to beat.
ROSAS FIRST - In the second heat of the Betta Home Living Pace, there will be a short-priced favourite in gate four, Gilty Hanover. She has been super at her two runs back from a spell, being narrowly beaten in 1.53 around Melton last time after leading. He has enough gate speed to cross the pole marker early, if driver Simon Turnbull can find that spot then hand-up to the favourite, it is hard to see him missing a place after her impressive last start win when running on hard. Even if he doesn’t cross early and get that spot behind the leader, she showed he can sprint well enough late, so she has other options.
BYE BYE BARBIE - A poor draw on paper for Bye Bye Barbie, but she does have a few things in her favour. There is likely to be good speed on which will suit her, many of these went around in the same race last time and she acquitted herself well when giving the more favoured runners a start. Admiral was well favoured in that event, led and was well beaten, Bye Bye Barbie should have the option of waiting to see when the three-wide horses go and then getting the cart up on the back of them. If the speed is genuine, expect the back-row horses will feature prominently.
OZZIE BOGAN - Ozzie Bogan has been racing in metro races at his last couple, both of which he was drawn off the back line where he was not able to use his great gate speed. He has been victorious at his last two starts when drawn the front, leading all the way, so expect that with the clever concession driving option of Kima Frenning, she will roll straight to the front and be very hard to run down. The Somebeachsomewhere gelding has never missed a place in nine starts around the track and the longer trip looks more suitable than the mile.